A few damaging gusts possible in the Panhandle early Tuesday

Panama City, Florida – A strong storm system that is expected to bring tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds to Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama Monday afternoon will bring the risk of a few damaging thunderstorms to portions of the Florida Panhandle late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

The factors that are forecast to come together to produce the tornado risk over portions of the Deep South will not be as well aligned as thunderstorms move into the Florida Panhandle between midnight and 10 AM Tuesday. However, enough unstable air streaming northward from the Gulf of Mexico and strong winds through a deep layer of the atmosphere has prompted the Storm Prediction Center to issue a “slight risk” of severe thunderstorms west of the Apalachicola River. In their early morning outlook, their forecasters say there is the potential for scattered damaging winds and a threat of tornadoes despite the slightly less favorable conditions for severe thunderstorms compared to areas farther west.

High-resolution computer models show the thunderstorms reaching the Tallahassee area around or shortly after sunrise Tuesday. Occasional storms may not clear the capital city region until mid-afternoon. Gusty winds, downpours, and lightning are possible with these storms, but the risk of damaging thunderstorms is considerably lower over the central and eastern Big Bend.

Much colder air will flow in behind the cold front Tuesday night. Some clouds and wind should prevent a widespread freeze Wednesday morning, but clear skies and light winds will create conditions more favorable for a light freeze over much of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and North Florida on Thursday morning. The greatest chance of freezing temperatures is away from the immediate Gulf coast and closer to Interstate 10, in areas that have already experienced a freeze two weeks ago.