Tropical Wave near Bahamas has 30% chance of development in next 5 days

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gabrielle, located over the far north Atlantic Ocean.

1. A weak area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave located
a little more than 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although some
slight development of this system is possible today or tomorrow, by
Thursday, upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for
tropical cyclone formation. This disturbance is expected to move
slowly westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean for the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

2. Shower activity associated with a surface trough interacting with
an upper-level low near the north coast of Hispaniola northeastward
over the southwestern Atlantic has increased a little since
yesterday. Little, if any, development of this disturbance is
expected during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward
across the Bahamas and the Florida peninsula. However, environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for development
when the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.
Regardless of development, this disturbance will produce periods
of locally heavy rainfall across the Bahamas through Thursday, and
across Florida on Friday and continuing into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

3. A tropical wave located just off the west coast of Africa is
expected to move quickly westward during the next several days.
Some slow development is possible late this week and over the
weekend when the system is several hundred miles east of the
Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

Forecaster Avila