5pm CDT advisory on Tropical Depression 16 (10-4-17)

Tropical Depression Sixteen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
500 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017

…LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE DEPRESSION…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…12.5N 82.5W
ABOUT 55 MI…85 KM W OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND
ABOUT 180 MI…290 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12-24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of the
depression. A hurricane watch could be issued for portions of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 82.5 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue tonight. On the forecast track, the depression should be nearing the coast of Nicaragua early Thursday, move across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras late Thursday, and emerge into the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm
overnight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday night:

Nicaragua…15 to 20 inches, isolated 30 inches
Costa Rica and Panama…5 to 10 inches, isolated 20 inches
Honduras…2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches

Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to start in the warning area in Nicaragua early on Thursday, and spread into
Honduras late Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by the cyclone are affecting portions of the coast of Nicaragua, and will begin to affect other land areas around the northwestern Caribbean later this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
Forecaster Blake

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