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Hurricane Watches Posted for South Florida

Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 34A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
200 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2017

...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRMA MOVING BETWEEN
THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 70.4W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach 
* Florida Keys

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas
* Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Central Bahamas
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita
Beach
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the
southern border with Haiti
* Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuba provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Camaguey, Ciego
de Avila, Sancti Spiritus and Villa Clara.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as well as Cuba and Florida should monitor the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 70.4 West. Irma is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days
with some decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, the eye of Irma should continue to move between Hispaniola and the Turks and
Caicos this afternoon. The hurricane will then move across the southeastern Bahamas by this evening, and then be near the central
Bahamas by Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts.  Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a
powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km). An unofficial observing site on Grand Turk recently reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust to 66 mph
(106 km/h).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force plane was 922 mb (27.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Jupiter Inlet to Bonita Beach, including Florida Keys...5 to 10 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the
following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft
Southeastern and central Bahamas...15 to 20 ft
Northwestern Bahamas...5 to 10 ft
Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft
Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft

Water levels around Puerto Rico should subside today.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti today.
Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands later today with tropical
storm conditions expected within the next several hours.  These conditions will spread into the central Bahamas by tonight or early
Friday.

Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Cuba by Friday.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin within the warning area in Cuba tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas Friday
night and Saturday.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Florida by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Saturday.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday evening:

Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands...
additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches
Much of the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches, isolated
20 inches
Andros Island and Bimini, Bahamas...12 to 16 inches, isolated 25
inches
Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...4 to 10 inches,
isolated 15 inches
Southern Dominican Republic and southern Haiti...2 to 5 inches
Eastern and central Cuba...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches
Southeast Florida and the upper Florida Keys...8 to 12 inches,
isolated 20 inches
Lower Florida Keys...2 to 5 inches

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Irma are affecting the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas,
the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, and should start affecting portions of the southeast
coast of the United States later today and tonight.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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